Governor Susana Martinez enters the 2014 general election in a very strong position to win a second term.  Her opponent, Attorney General Gary King, limps in to the battle for New Mexico with nearly two-thirds of the voters in his own party already having cast a vote against him.  Aside from Governor Martinez’s strong personal and political standing, the current political environment and historical trends all favor her re-election.

The 2014 Election In Perspective

The 2014 midterm election is widely expected to be a strong year for Republicans based on historical trends and current polling of the political environment.

• In the modern presidential era, a president with an approval rating below 50 percent loses an average of 44 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives.

• This trickles down to state level elections.  Presidents with an approval rating below 50 percent have lost an average of 517 seats in state legislative chambers.

• President Obama’s approval rating is a meager 44 percent. (Source: Real Clear Politics average).

• In addition, New Mexico has its own historical precedent.  For the last 25 years, New Mexico has always elected a governor from the opposite party occupying the White House.

New Mexicans Stand Behind Their Governor

Governor Martinez begins this general election campaign in strong position with an approval rating consistently in the 60 percent range since assuming office in 2011.  Voters like how Governor Martinez has led New Mexico through difficult times and respect the courage she has shown in making tough decisions to move the state forward.  While liberals have tried to paint a caricature of Governor Martinez to no avail, New Mexicans stand with their governor and consistently point to her “toughness” as a badge of honor.

Exceptionally Flawed Democrat Nominee

While Democrats have spent four years attacking Governor Martinez and focused all of their primary campaign fire on her, New Mexicans have not been exposed to the serious flaws of Gary King.

Demonstrating how remarkably flawed Gary King is … those who know King best like him least.  This was underscored when King finished last in the Democratic pre-primary convention and further illustrated with his anemic primary fundraising effort.  And today, two-thirds of Democrats rejected Gary King in favor of someone else.

As the rest of New Mexico becomes more familiar with King and his record of non-accomplishment, they too will reject him.

Democrat pundits like to compare the position of their nominee with that of then-candidate Susana Martinez in 2010.  While it is true that Martinez was relatively unknown statewide when she announced her campaign in July 2009, the fundamental difference is that Martinez ran a much stronger primary campaign and as a result entered the general election leading Diane Denish.

• On May 26, 2010, KOB-TV reported Susana Martinez was leading Diane Denish 49 percent to 43 percent in their Survey USA poll.  On June 3, 2010, Rasmussen Reports released a survey with Martinez leading Denish 44 percent to 42 percent.

  Unlike 2010, Gary King enters the 2014 general election badly trailing Governor Martinez.

  While Governor Martinez has enjoyed double-digit leads and high approval ratings throughout her term, we are mindful that no Republican has scored higher than 55 percent of the statewide vote in a general election in large part because of the partisan make-up of the state.

Finance

Governor Martinez enters the general election with $4.3 million on-hand and an active donor file of over 13,500 contributors.  Gary King enters the general election in debt, having spent two years running for office and demonstrating his inability to raise the resources to be competitive.  In fact, but for his loaning his campaign $300,000 in the last two weeks, King would have been unable to air a single advertisement in the primary election.

SUMMARY

Governor Martinez enters the general election against a flawed Democratic nominee.  We are preparing for a rigorous test, but the choice will be clear in November.  We are confident in the leadership provided by Governor Martinez, the good will she has earned with voters and believe she is in a very strong position to win re-election.